Tuesday, June 2, 2015

I think it is an extremely problematic behavior that is almost a hysteria continues, despite the fa

I. Masten for Portalplus: Every time we AUKN compliment that placed us on their "hate" -listo - newspaper
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Igor Masten is an economist and professor at the Ljubljana Faculty of Economics. sendedu In the past he was a member sendedu of the Government Council for strategic issues, supervisor of NLB, it also perform a number of other important functions.
You have probably been the very first in Slovenia that you publicly pointed out that there are serious concerns with the methodology of the stress tests. Part of the public's your reservations ignored, part of them adopted because they offer excellent arguments for a political struggle against the bad bank. What is, in this context, your views on the affair sendedu Kotnik?
My call, together with my colleagues, the disclosure of which is dated to the end of October 2013. At that time, if you read carefully, the call relates fundamentally to the assumptions of the stress test. At that time they were established unofficial sendedu information about very extreme assumptions. With such a strong stress was the question of whether it would be Slovenian government, because it was clear that the banks recapitalize the state, the market gathered sufficient funds. This would entail the risk of a request for international financial assistance.
The question of methodology in the affair Kotnik is completely different. This is the last year for published test from 2013 and from March 2014 until the subsequent sendedu EU-wide test 2014. At the outbreak of the scandal, the Governor of the Bank of Slovenia at the press conference told journalists that the methodology is published on the website sendedu of the Bank of Slovenia. However, despite two weeks talk that the methodology behind. It was not innocently doing. The allegation is that the methodology was biased, so is it biased assessment of capital hole in the banks. If you are taking this hard to conceal methodology shall be immediately placed in the context of conspiracy and manipulation of the size of the bank is not required to prove the hole. If, however, admitted that the methodology is not actually hidden, then it has the necessary expertise to justify manipulation with the assessment of the holes. Instead of manipulating evidence sendedu to the methodology involved some rather handled only.
I think it is an extremely problematic behavior that is almost a hysteria continues, despite the fact that it is now evident that the methodology does not hide. Daily Finance, for example. There is nothing wrong if a journalist or columnist does not know or understand the methodology. It is a complex matter, and it is only from the experts expect that by the master. The problem arises when, in spite of ignorance of the matter it deliberately provide false statements. sendedu It has to be that ignorance does not absolve responsibility.
Satisfy no one. This is something that makes an analyst. For this starts checking the reasonableness of calculated scenarios, testing internal consistency, sendedu impact on banks' balance sheets, etc. It is not a fact that you would anyone invent. Someone should calculate something. Using a methodology. When talking about ... These calculations are made by the method or models that are estimated, therefore, they are subject to error, etc. Such things should be checked. In principle, this should already done by the European Commission before the circulation of scenarios, but we were obviously very underestimated.
And I repeat: when inspections are still running, the final report has not yet been published, the outcome was not known, but we know how to use extreme assumptions could affect the final result. Hence the call for disclosure.
Extreme assumptions sendedu were later apparently somewhat corrected. We have also drawn attention to that, which I wrote in the column Professional amateurism that certain property valued extremely low. But again. After it was published methodology, sendedu you can see how the statistical method of trying to neutralize and how it affects the final result. Even the coefficients are given, how it is assessed loans given discounts in the valuation sendedu etc. The fact is that most of those who now speak on the subject, this is not even looked at because it is more convenient to speak, that the document does not exist.
Today calls the disclosure are not the actual calls to the disclosure of methodologies, since this is disclosed for a long time. The methodology basically no one is interested. It is merely a media tool for discrediting the process of rehabilitation of banks.
Behold, I make criticisms sendedu of Mr. Kotnik, although related, divided into two overall. First are the objections to the procedures, which were led by the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Slovenia. These procedures do not know. If creating an irregularity that holders of subordinated bonds caused the damage will be to the detriment of

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